Ward’s 2016 Washington State, King County, and Seattle voter’s guide

Washington State’s November 2016 election ballot is chalk-full of important initiatives that require careful consideration.  I’ve given them that, and give you my recommendations below.  With one exception, this guide will NOT cover individual candidates, as I believe that territory is too divided along partisan lines.

5 minute voting guide

Seattle

WA State

  • STRONG YES on Measure 732 – Make polluters pay their fair share for putting our collective home, Earth, in jeopardy via a proven and effective carbon tax. 732 reduces taxes on non-polluting things to boot!
  • NO on Measure 1433 – $15 minimum wage for WA state: This one requires a lesson in microeconomics that is not easy to deliver in a couple sentences: High minimum wages cause the least-skilled & most vulnerable (poorer, younger, less-educated) workers to lose jobs. This isn’t just theory, it’s already happening in Seattle due to the jump to $11 per hour. I discuss this one more below.
  • YES on Measure 1464 – Campaign finance reform with restrictions on lobbying by former politicians. Also restricts donations from potential state contractors and others with sleazy, non-democratic interests.
  • YES on Measure 1491 – Reasonable tool to try to reduce firearms access for those in imminent danger  of hurting themselves or others, complete with constitutional protections based on existing legislation for restraining orders. Don’t worry, the state can’t simply walk into your house and take your guns on a whim, I promise.
  • STRONG NO on Measure 1501 – Don’t believe the title of this bill; it’s a misleading scare entirely bankrolled by a very strong union (the SEIU) to hide its public employees from public record to keep these employees for learning about their rights. Seriously. It’s ugly. The Seattle Times explains.
  • STRONG NO on Measure 735 – Does nothing regarding Citizens United/corporate influence in politics, but has some harmful suggestions such as removing non-profits from lobbying. The Seattle Times explains.
  • YES on the Advisory votes 14 and 15 – Doesn’t do anything binding. Recommends maintaining consistent, already-passed tax policies.
  • STRONG YES on Senate Joint Resolution No. 8210 – A governance ‘good house-keeping’ bill with no one opposed to it.

King County

  • YES on both Charter Amendments 1: make Prosecuting Attorney a nonpartisan office, and 2: update the 1950’s-era Charter language to make it gender-neutral: councilmember instead of councilman, etc. Turns out women serve in government too.

STRONG recommendations are based on how clear the evidence & likely outcomes of a decision are to me. They have nothing to do with how important the measure is.

Candidate Recommendation

I STRONGLY RECOMMEND Brady Walkinshaw for US Representative in District 7. He’s for 732, speaks intelligently and correctly on a wide range of issues, is whip-smart (Fulbright scholar, Princeton alum), has made big impacts in local government around improving the lot of the mentally ill, reducing our prison population, and improving the environment. He’s also 32, and would be the youngest member of congress, and might actually know how to use the internet.

Brady worked for the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation for several years, which is know for its rigorous, evidence-based approach to uplifting people. He also seems humble, pragmatic, and especially willing and able to work with Republicans–both candidates in this district are Democrats– to get things done. I also had the pleasure of meeting Mr. Walkinshaw at a “town hall” event, and was extremely impressed.

More thoughts on the initiatives

YES YES A THOUSAND TIMES YES on 732 – carbon tax

Carbon taxes, along with ‘cap and trade’, are the smartest kind of global climate change legislation. A similar carbon tax has been working successfully already in British Columbia. This bill is also revenue-neutral, which means no extra taxes, and no budget cuts either (or at least very small ones either way, depending on how the math works out.) Businesses will now pay for their pollution costs, but they and their consumers (read: us!) will get a break on producing and buying pollution-free goods. Those on the left that oppose this are either fools or hypocrites, or both.

NO on 1443 – $15 minimum wage in Washington state

Don’t, through good intentions, close the door on the lowest-skilled folks in society by forcing their cost above what businesses would pay. High minimum wages cause the least-skilled & most vulnerable (poorer, younger, less-educated) workers to lose jobs because they can’t get jobs at the (lower-than-new-minimum) wages that employer’s would be willing to pay them. Thus, these folks lose, and employers hire a few less workers, who are more skilled, at the higher minimum wage. Employers might also automate a little more and do other things to reduce their labor needs.

This is happening in Seattle already, as explained here.

Help the working poor instead by improving their skills (education, job-training & vocational programs), providing cost-effective services (health & child care, which might also make poor children more socially mobile), and allowing the poor to keep more of what they make (income tax reductions for the poor & things like the Earned Income Tax Credit.)

Another overly-simplistic way of looking at this is that I’d rather pay 10 people $9/hour then 9 people at $10 per hour and have the least skilled guy be unemployed.

My background and biases

I have an MBA from the University of Washington, focusing on economics & finance, and two degrees in Physics. I’ve worked as a financial advisor, data analyst, and engineer. I’ve researched each measure thoroughly, spending about 12 hours total on the entire process, and have consulted several sources*.

What I believe in

Utilitarianism: I believe every individual’s well-being is of equal intrinsic value, be it a Washington voter, a felon, or an African living halfway across the world. The goal of policy should be to promote the greatest happiness across the greatest number of people**.

Libertarian paternalism: I also believe that individuals themselves are usually the best judge of what will make them better off, and that ‘freedom’ (bounded by laws to protect others’ liberty) and markets (i..e: collective free choice) are the defaults that usually lead to the best outcomes.  That said, institutions can improve humanity’s collective lot further by shaping choices to help individuals in areas where we know humans do badly for themselves, including cases of addiction, mental illness, or more mundane mental problems like laziness or poor statistical reasoning (automatic 401k contributions are brilliant, for example.) Also, there is room for governments to engage in wealth redistribution or other measures that boost the total world’s well-being, after adding up the social costs & benefits.

I generally favor more choices for people as opposed to fewer. I also believe society should often reallocate its resources to the people who have the least in the world, being careful not to create bad incentives that decrease our prosperity net of distributive benefits. The simple fact is that the amounts given up by the well-off often does much more good when received by the worse-off. For example, $3,500 can save a life in Africa, but will barely get you a college quarter’s tuition in the United States.

Footnotes

*Credit for my conviction, or rather conversion, against high minimum wages goes to my microeconomics & finance Professor Edward Rice, who held a riveting lecture on Seattle’s $15 minimum wage law prior to that vote last year. He and the majority, but certainly not entirety, of economists and their studies on the subject finally convinced me that high minimum wage laws (defined as, say, > 50% of the poverty level), well-intentioned as they might be, actually hurt the working poor, and society as a whole.

**Technically, I would amend this to ‘the greatest well-being for the greatest number of sentient beings’, which would include animals that can suffer/feel pain. As Jeremy Bentham said, “the question is not, Can they reason? nor, Can they talk? but, Can they suffer?”

***A good explanation of how inefficient & costly rail, and unfortunately, other public transit systems are, can be found here, and light rail specifically here. My one criticism of this analysis is that the author doesn’t account for global climate change externalities (which he DOES incorporate others), but I suspect that would make little difference in the calculations and conclusions. All hail the carbon tax & flexible, cheaper bus system instead!

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Ward’s 2012 Washington State, King County, and Seattle voter’s guide to the issues

Washington State’s November 2012 election ballot is chalk-full of important initiatives that you have a duty (that’s right) to vote intelligently on.  To help with that, I’m going to go over my recommendations below.  With one notable exception this year, this guide will NOT cover individual candidates, as I believe that territory is too fraught with political biases to be worthwhile to an unsympathetic reader.

Why should you give any credence to what I say?  Because I’ve researched each measure carefully, consulting several sources, am highly educated (two college diplomas and an MBA, with a solid background in economics, finance and even some philosophy), reasonably intelligent, and thoroughly rationale and critical.

My biases: I take it as given that each individual’s happiness is equally important (be it a Washington voter, felon, or Chinese guy), and that the goal of good policy should be to promote the greatest happiness across the greatest number of people.  (I.e.: I’m a died-in-the-wool Utilitarian after the fashion of Jeremy Bentham.)

These positions follow from the above philosophy:  I generally favor more choices for people as opposed to fewer (because people are usually made better off with more choice, except in certain cases.)  I believe society should often reallocate its resources to the people who have the least in the world (being careful not to create bad incentives that decrease our prosperity), as the amount given up by the well-off often does more good as an amount received by the worse-off.

As a simple example, Bill Gates wouldn’t miss $20 (and nor would most of us), but that same $20 can buy vaccines in Africa that could save a life.

Without further ado, here’s how you should vote (and why)!

State issues:

Ref 74 – Allow the gays to get marriedAPPROVE.  (Note that this bill preserves the right of religious organizations to refuse to perform, recognize, or accommodate any marriage ceremony, like that of a same-sex couple.)

502 – Legalize, regulate & tax marijuana – APPROVE.

Marijuana doesn’t appear to be particularly harmful.  Let’s let adults make adult decisions about what (at worst) mildly harmful substances they choose to ingest of their own free will.  Furthermore, policing marijuana has been largely a failure, and is extremely costly.  Instead, this bill will stop treating ADULT (21+) casual weed users as criminals, and turn weed use into a profitable source of state revenue for education, etc.

1240 – Public charter schools in WA state: APPROVE.  We need to explore more options in improving public education in WA state (and nationally), and allowing freer rein to nonprofit school administrators in a select group of 40 public charter schools seems like a very reasonable way to try some new things in education.

These charter schools are still publicly-funded & publicly-accountable schools (read the description of the bill before you go spouting off misleading WEA-influenced rhetoric willy nilly.)  They’re open to everyone, regardless of income (there’s no tuition, overflow applications will be handled by an impartial lottery), and they don’t ‘take money from public schools’ in the sense that they ARE public schools, run by a nonprofit org, and therefore get money from existing public school sources.  They are simply ALTERNATIVES to existing public schools.  They have to maintain the same hiring & educational standards as all other WA state schools.

Charter schools may not end up being the ‘answer’ to our less-than-stellar education system, but let’s please at least explore the possibility (and then measure & analyze the results), rather than being defeatist by opposing any new innovations in public education.  THINK OF THE CHILDREN! J

8221 & 8223: APPROVE each – Take a look at the 2012 Legislative voting: hardly anyone on either side of the political aisle opposed these bills of fiscal reasonableness, which is a good sign that we should pass them.

Advisory 1 – MAINTAINED – Recommend to the legislature to maintain the closure of a business tax deduction (aka, a tax ‘loophole’!)  I’m all for eliminating deductions favoring silly things, even when popular (I’d LOVE to see the homeowner’s mortgage interest deduction go away, but it’ll never happen.)  In economic theory, such loopholes distort incentives, and are bad for economic efficiency (unless they’re correcting/promoting for negative/positive externalities, like taxes on gasoline, which are a good thing, and should be higher!)  Plus, WA need revenue, so let’s close this and collect some.

Advisory 2 – MAINTAINED – See above rationale.  This time we’re taxing a negative externality-causing thing, petroleum, and perhaps correcting for subsidizing of negative externalities).

BTW, neither of these advisory votes matter that much since they won’t change the law by themselves!

Seattle & King County

APPROVE both Prop 1 in King County (fingerprinting levy to aid law enforcement) and Prop 1 in Seattle to rebuild the crumbling Alaskan Way seawall.

2012 Bonus recommendation – Ward’s votin’ Republican in the Governor’s Race

WA State governor:  I normally don’t post any of my partisan (Dem vs Republican) recommendations, since I want to restrict this guide to a non-partisan review of issues, vs politicians, but I’m going to break this rule for this notable reason: for the first time in my (relatively short) electoral life, I’m voting for a Republican, Rob McKenna, for WA state governor.  (The Seattle Times also recommends Mr. McKenna, along with a few other Republicans, as well as Democrats, that I will be voting for in large part due to their recommendation rationales.)

In short, McKenna seems to be more thoughtful and have more detailed, practical plans on tackling tough issues like education & health care costs in WA state than his opponent, Democrat Jay Inslee.  Inslee seems mostly full of hot, nice-guy-that-you’d-have-a-drink-with political air, spouting vague platitudes which I generally agree with in principle, but that don’t seem to have any practical implementation behind them.

While I disagree with McKenna’s backing of Eyman’s initiative to prevent the legislature from passing taxes without a 2/3s majority (because I think it will hamstring our legislature’s ability to close loopholes & properly fund voter-approved measures, and puts us on a road to major fiscal problem similar to places like California that have tried such a thing), I think McKenna is the best choice for governor of the two.  He has the strongest plan & apparent commitment to fund higher education (he wants to increase state funding from 30% to 50% of the cost of tuition), and he also seems serious about introducing measures to reduce the cost of health care at the state level (by favoring Health Savings Accounts & increased competition in state health care plans.)

You can find a comparison of McKenna & Inslee on the issues here: http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2019488749_govissues21m.html

And also here, which includes a video of the first gubernatorial debate: http://www.diffen.com/difference/Jay_Inslee_vs_Rob_McKenna

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